An economic assessment of the impact of climate change on the Gambia’s agriculture sector: a CGE approach

Purpose Climate change and its imminent threat to human survival adversely impact the agriculture sector. In an impoverished country like The Gambia, economic costs of climate are colossal. This study aims establish a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Gambia’s sector examine effects on crops, livestock sea-level rise. Design/methodology/approach used CGE with other models compute impacts social accounting matrix calibrates results from various models, thereby generating baseline which exemplify “steady-state” policy shock illustrating medium- long-term country’s Findings indicate status quo showing neglect due limited investment in Hence, is “hardest hit” as result change. When factored medium term (2055) long (2085), macroeconomic indicators gross domestic product, national savings, wages, disposable income consumer price index deteriorated, elucidating vulnerability economy consumption groundnuts, cattle fish will decline by 5%, 5% 4%, respectively, term. However, production all agricultural commodities average 35% same period. international trade show that exportation would while importation increase over time. level 3% 2055 2085. Generally, manifest severity have multiplier effect economy. causing hunger, poverty misery. Originality/value caveat this revealed nuances not captured previous Gambian studies, thus novelty study.